Estimate Assignment Probability With Live Nasdaq Option Chains

How This Covered Call Assignment Calculator Works

This tool estimates assignment probability at expiration for covered calls using live options chain data. Select a stock ticker, expiration date, and strike to evaluate assignment risk and compare available strikes.

Behind the scenes, the calculator models where the stock could finish on expiration day and estimates how often it ends above your strike (the condition for expiration assignment in this tool). The default engine uses a Black-Scholes style closed-form model with current stock price, time to expiration, implied volatility, and interest rates to produce that probability. A Monte Carlo simulation model is also available, which runs many randomized price paths under the same assumptions and measures how often the strike is exceeded.

FAQ

What does assignment probability mean? It is the estimated chance your short call is in-the-money at expiration and gets assigned.

How is assignment probability calculated? The calculator estimates the chance the stock finishes above your strike at expiration using a Black-Scholes style model, and can also use Monte Carlo simulation that runs many randomized price paths under the same assumptions.

Does this include dividend early-assignment effects? No. This version focuses on expiration assignment probability only.

Where does market data come from? Nasdaq options chain data for the selected ticker.

New to Covered Calls?

A covered call is a strategy where you sell a call option against shares you already own, collecting a premium in exchange for capping your upside at the strike price. The key question for any covered call position is: how likely is it that my shares get called away? That's exactly what this tool estimates. For a deeper explanation of how assignment works, what the Black-Scholes model calculates, and how to interpret delta, break-even, and annualized return, see the About page.